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Although three major ocean freight alliances are in place for sharing vessel capacity, recent events have made it painfully apparent that this does not translate into consistency in risk assessments, routing decisions, and schedule reliability. Most apparent has been the limbo dance performed by Maersk, which, in recent days, has completed a U-turn on the decision to once again transit through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. 

Following the Christmas holidays, the situation in the Red Sea remains fluid and uncertain. It is also clear that carriers are currently divided in their risk assessment, providing an overall blurry picture of the situation.

Overall, the situation is unchanged in the sense that container carriers continue to re-route vessels utilising the extended route around the Cape of Good Hope. While a military coalition has been formed, it currently remains unclear as to when this will have an effect, allowing vessels to pass through the Red Sea safely.

We kick off 2024 with a fresh take on the current market outlook considering recent market developments.

Following our ocean market update published on 18 December informing of the consequences of missile attacks on vessels passing through the Red Sea, we continue to monitor the situation closely and wish to update you on the latest developments.

This is a kind reminder as the Lunar New Year approaches, which traditionally means production shutdown in many Asian countries, including China, for a few weeks. The entire industry must be aware and prepared to prevent delays, as most operations close, and employees generally return home for several weeks.

With apparent pressure on capacity ex Asia in recent weeks and this leading to significant rate level increases we have again moved towards a market development similar to pre-pandemic. Somewhat unexpectedly the peak season for volumes ex Asia has led to significant pressure on available capacity having been boosted by events such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Some analysts now predict that this could be sustained all the way up to Lunar New Year, 10 February 2024.

Volatility and uncertainty are once again on the menu for shippers around the world. With the year of 2023 having marked a return to pre-pandemic schedule reliability, it is now apparent that we will enter 2024 with darker clouds on the horizon.

Decarbonising the supply chain is a joint effort. As a result of our long-standing partnership with MAN Energy Solutions (MAN ES) in Denmark, we have initiated a project to test and develop sustainable logistics solutions. The full project scope involves 100% ocean biofuel and trucks running on renewable diesel, HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil), ensuring approx. 85% reduction on the last-mile delivery. The business case will inform future co-led carbon-reducing initiatives.